Each week, Al Attiyah Foundation publishes its energy market review, bringing you the latest global news from the oil, gas and petrochemicals sector.
Oil Prices Rise to Three-Year High on Back of Supply Deficit Forecasts
Oil prices settled at a three-year high above USD80 a barrel on Friday, 15 October, boosted by forecasts of a supply deficit in the next few months as the easing of coronavirus-related travel restrictions spurs demand. Brent crude futures settled up at USD84.86 a barrel on Friday, as front-month prices touched their highest level since October 2018, hitting a weekly rise of 3%, its sixth straight weekly gain. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 1.2%, to USD82.28 a barrel. That was up 3.5% on the week in an eighth consecutive weekly rise. Demand has picked up with the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, with a further boost from power generators who have been turning away from expensive gas and coal to fuel oil and diesel. The White House said it will lift COVID-19 travel restrictions for fully vaccinated foreign nationals effective 8 November, which should further boost jet fuel demand. Meanwhile, a sharp drop in oil stockpiles in the United States and the member countries of the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development is expected to keep global supply tight.
LNG Prices Continue to Rise on Firm Demand, While All Eyes Are on Russian Flow
Asia liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices continued to rise last week, on the back of higher European gas prices, which fueled competition from buyers in Asia, while demand is firm from top buyer China. The average LNG price for November delivery into Northeast Asia was estimated at about USD38.50 per metric million British thermal units (mmBtu), up USD1.50 from the previous week. December delivery prices were estimated to be about USD38.40 per mmBtu. Facing an ongoing power crunch, amid a shortage of coal for electricity generation, China has been one of the heavy buyers of LNG. The country’s September imports of natural gas, both from pipelines and as LNG, were at a nine-month high at 10.62 million tonnes, 22.6% above year-ago levels. The heavy Chinese buying is reinforcing the link between Asian LNG pricing and the European TTF. TTF prices closed at USD30.05 per mmBtu on Friday, with nearly a 6% rise on the week. Attention will continue to be focused on gas transit capacity auctions on Monday, and what they reveal about Russia’s bookings for November capacity into Europe. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia could resume spot gas sales after it finishes filling its storage reserves.
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