One of the main aims of Qatar National Vision 2030 is to diversify the economy and reduce dependence on the hydrocarbon industries. The country’s economy is one of the fastest-growing in the Middle East and the world.
Economic Growth and Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The economy weathered the impact of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the blockade that was imposed on 5 June 2017, with positivity after borders reopened following the AlUla Declaration in January 2021.
The 2023 Article IV Mission to Qatar by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) states, ‘Qatar’s economic growth has normalised in 2023 following the World Cup-driven boom. Continued normalisation is expected in the near term, with a favourable medium-term outlook supported by the LNG production expansion and intensifying reform efforts.’
Broad fiscal discipline and hydrocarbon windfalls in 2022–23 led to in sizeable surpluses and rapid central government debt reduction. Continued fiscal prudence, revenue diversification, and spending composition and efficiency should underpin the medium-term fiscal strategy.
One of the main aims of Qatar National Vision 2030 is to diversify the economy and reduce dependence on the hydrocarbon industries. As per the IMF report, the Third National Development Strategy 2024–2030 provides an opportunity to accelerate economic transformation toward a knowledge-based and inclusive economy supported by private-sector led growth.
According to the Planning and Statistics Authority (PSA), the quarterly GDP estimates at constant prices in Q1 2023 is estimated at QAR198.74 bn, a decrease of 8.7% compared to Q4 2022, and an increase of 1.0% year-on-year (y-o-y).
The quarterly GDP at constant prices is QAR170.10 bn, a decrease of 3.9% compared to Q4 2022, and an increase of 2.7% y-o-y.
Export, Import and Trade Surplus
In November 2023, PSA data stated the total exports of goods (including exports of goods of domestic origin and re-exports) amounted to QAR26.5 bn, a decrease of 8.8% month-on-month (m-o-m) and a decrease of 28.6% y-o-y. Imports of goods was QAR9.8 bn, a decrease of 2.6% m-o-m and a decrease of 10.1% y-o-y. China was the main country of destination for exports (20.4%) and the main country of origin for imports (15.4%).
The merchandise trade balance surplus – the difference between total exports and imports – was QAR16.7 bn, down 12.1% m-o-m and 36.3% y-o-y.
The Budget
The State Budget for 2024 was announced in December 2023, with total revenue expected to be QAR202.0 bn, a 11.4% decrease compared to the 2023 budget total revenues estimates. HE Ali bin Ahmed Al Kuwari, the Minister of Finance, stated this decrease in revenues was due to assuming an average oil price of USD60 per barrel for 2024 instead of USD65 per barrel in 2023, based on international estimates for oil prices in 2024 and conservative estimates for oil and gas revenues. The estimates of total oil and gas revenues for 2024 amount to QAR159.0 bn (a 14.5% decrease) with the estimates of non-oil revenues for 2024 at QAR43.0 bn, an increase of approximately 2.4% against 2023.
Expenditures is increased by 1.0% to reach QAR200.9 bn, due to a rise in the allocations for salaries and wages to QAR64 bn. Allocations for both current expenditures and secondary capital expenditures are also increased by 6.4% and 27.5% respectively. Major capital expenditures are decreased by nearly 8.3% due to the completion of many economic and infrastructure projects.
According to HE Al Kuwari, the 2024 budget continues to focus on achieving the goals of Qatar National Vision 2030, namely the development of human capital by focusing on the health and education sectors – allocations for these two sectors constitute 20% of the total budget. Additionally, the goals relating to diversifying the local economy and enhancing its competitiveness sees allocations for the communications and IT sector doubled compared to 2023.
The state has a commitment to pay the equivalent of approximately QAR7.3 bn of public debt dues in 2024. Therefore, the cash deficit for 2024 at the oil price of USD60 per barrel is estimated at approximately QAR6.2 bn. This can be covered from the surplus of in addition to using domestic and external debt instruments as required.
Inflation and Cost of Living
In December 2023, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), used to calculate inflation rates in Qatar, reached 109.98 points, an increase of 1.59% m-o-m and an increase of 1.65% y-o-y.
Population and the Labour Force
Total population in December 2023 was 2,965,952: males 2,165,015; females 800,937.
The World Bank states Qatar has one the lowest percentages of unemployed people, declining over the last 30 years from 0.81% in 1991 to 0.17% in 2021, and with youth unemployment just 0.5% of total population.
